I don't really think that's true. If you have a popular podcast like ATP, based on their ad rates, they're pulling in well into the six figures, for each host. Obviously that took years and years of work and an existing reputation, but it's not impossible.

I'll definitely emphasize the "if" in "if Spotify can pay them more" - I don't know what share of podcasts, if any, could be monetized more effectively through a paid subscription platform like Spotify than through ads. ATP is about the last podcast I'd expect to be in that boat because their subscribers are such high-value advertising targets, so I don't think they're representative.

For a generic or small following podcast, this could be a game changer. For the established or top 10 podcasts in a genre, it won't sway them from being on as many platforms as possible while directing listeners to their merch/patreon/etc.

Spotify going into podcasts will be like uber in the early 2010s, it'll make a handful of people decent returns while they burn through their cash hoping for dominance. If they achieve dominance they'll start the squeeze, if they don't they'll just dump the market.

What makes you say ad-free? Not even paying customers get ad-free podcasts on Spotify.

Wishful thinking, mostly. But Spotify seems like the most likely path to non-ad-based monetization of the “bottom 90%” of podcasts, despite the fact that Spotify isn’t currently going down that path.

I'd pay a higher subscription price if Spotify could get me my podcasts without ads.

Most podcasts do ad reads in the show, and that's usually how they make their money.

And which is not something Spotify will change. Did you read the article? It goes into detail about that, the only thing that would probably change here is that the ads won't be read by podcasters anymore but inserted by Spotify ad-tech. They can't pay podcasters without getting a lot more money than they get from current subscriptions, they are still loosing money on their music subscription service. That's the entire point of their podcast pivot. Make more money. They have no money to hand out to podcasters. Podcasts won't be ad-free on Spotify, no matter if you're paying or not.