Tactile buttons can be pressed while keeping your eyes on the road and your surroundings. Touchscreens are inherently visual and require looking. Relative positioning of differently shaped buttons help guide your fingers to what you need.
They just don't work half as well as when people did it manually.
Before the pandemic, it was rare to get blinded by a person's brights. Now if I drive at night it's just non-stop, and I live in an area with street lighting. (Some of this is also due to after market LEDs and possibly lost driving manners.)
It's extra obnoxious as a pedestrian because at best they get turned off way too late, or frequently not at all.
You mean to say "automatic high beams on Teslas". The ones on our Hyundai Ioniq work just fine, and have never blinded anyone. But in Redmond, WA, Teslas are everywhere and 90% if you're getting beamed, it's a Tesla. Their headlights are, in many cases, improperly aimed out of the factory and their shit auto high beams only make it worse.
Interesting, my 2019 M3 deactivates high beams as soon as it sees the faintest of lights coming the opposite direction.
I think what you're really experiencing is default/shit calibration from factory (0/"highest it can get") + super-bright LED lights. The first 2 months I drove my M3 everyone was flashing me on the highway, and it took me a while to put that together and notice that it was me with low beams. I realized how bright the LED lights are the moment I saw the orange turn light brighten up a 5m overhead sign from 25m away, and then looked for calibration settings of the beams. Haven't been flashed since :)
It's not just Teslas. It's also hard to take an inventory of each vehicle blinding me because I'm being blinded while still paying attention to everything else.
There's also the issue where most people who use them clearly think they're fine, or they would stop.
Can confirm, my Ioniq5's auto high beams are great. I've felt the need to manually override them twice in nearly a year of ownership, both times were cross traffic that didn't have enough visible reflectors for the car's cameras to tell they were there.
They call it 'onramping'. Moonpay is a big one, coinbase has one, onramper is another. Basically Applepay / credit card -> ETH or SOL or USDC, etc, then lose away!
It's an empirical fact that smart people can predict things by doing research. See Tetlock's book Superforecasting.
I've been doing it profitably myself for almost 10 years now. I have zero special inside knowledge, and no access to any other non-public information.
> Will the US strike Iran by X date
Last year I did think the market for a strike on Iran was significantly underpriced given the information and conditions within a specific frame of time.
I don't think every smart person can just pop into prediction markets and print money, but I know many smart people who are long-term winners. I also don't try to knock people as degenerate when they have genuine talent.
You haven't been profitable for 10 years on prediction markets and you being profitable doesn't mean anything in regards to insiders or the rigging of a market.
Some of that, sure. But realistically, a lot people are just don't want to pay for every frontier model provider out there as they're released. Not just money, but also time trying them out. (Recommend people at least try out their multimodal model.)
It doesn't help that Google offers a bunch of confusing plans in multiple places. I ended up just pasting all their AI plan URLs, at least that I could find, into Claude so I didn't have to figure it out.
I pay for Google Workspace, so pretty much the Gemini Pro included with that suffices my use case. I can't say it will work for everyone, but I do use it for random tasks - all the way from wood working to building complex software projects, and so far I've rarely hit the limit too.
I guess it's access to Gemini, because that's the plan I'm on and you can access Gemini using gemini.google.com or their phone app (Android/iOS). I couldn't find information on the API, maybe it's on that page, but I couldn't find it from my phone browser. Anyway, I use OpenRouter pretty much, so I have no idea if the API is part of my plan.
It's also a bit overblown. If you could rig a war, you would stand to make a lot more money playing the stock market than small potatoes prediction markets. A lot of money has been on the line based on which party wins elections even before prediction markets existed (see fracking or pipeline project approval as obvious examples).
I've been active and profitably trading in prediction markets for a long time now, but I think this perspective is also not helpful.
Prediction markets exist within the laws and institutions of society to be able to function, and the public should debate and discuss how they're regulated. Problem gamblers do present a negative externality where third parties can bear the cost, especially when they have dependents.
A lot of people assume insider trading in weather markets on data that's publicly available but they're unaware of.
It's also a massive whoosh that you only consider the insider trader aspect in choosing to play weather markets. No consideration of how you would get an edge in these markets against extremely powerful weather models used by meteorologists who understand the subject and how to apply the data. It seems much different than betting against political pundits.
It's also another whoosh not realizing that some of these stations are actually not that secure when you take a look at them in real life. Less insiders than betting on things that aren't tamper-resistant.
Also, a lot of people complain about insiders profiting from last minute data. One way to limit this would be requiring markets to close in advance of final data, but people love to gamble (read: bet without an edge) on things at the last minute across all prediction market subjects.
PredictIt operated with $850 limits for years, and overall this seemed fine. Limits of various sizes might make sense depending on the subject, where the risk of penalty greater outweighs the potential profits.
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